Who Really Pockets India’s Russian Oil Windfall?
KBS Sidhu 08 August 2025
Cheap Russian Oil, Yet Petrol Pumps Stay Costly
India’s Russian oil imports tell a striking story in numbers. Over the past two years, India has been importing crude oil at discounts ranging from 25% to 50%, amounting to US$5–USUS$30 per barrel below global prices. Yet petrol prices remain near Rs95 per litre and diesel at about Rs88 per litre. During this same period, state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) have reported a huge jump in combined profits, while the Union and States continue to rake in nearly Rs4.7 lakh crore annually in fuel taxes. The Indian consumer, however, has seen no reduction in fuel prices.
 
The OMC Windfall
In FY23–24, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) posted combined profits of Rs86,000 crore, compared to just Rs3,400 crore the previous year. Indian Oil’s profit alone surged from Rs8,242 crore to Rs39,619 crore, a jump of 381%. Bharat Petroleum saw an unprecedented rise from Rs1,870 crore to Rs26,674 crore—a 1,326% increase—while Hindustan Petroleum swung from a loss of Rs8,974 crore to a profit of Rs14,694 crore.
 
Private refiners extracted even larger gains. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), importing the largest share of discounted Russian crude, recorded refining margins exceeding US$12.5 per barrel, while Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy reported margins of US$15.2 per barrel. These margins, multiplied over millions of barrels daily, translated into tens of thousands of crores in windfall profits.
 
 
The Government’s Take: Taxes that Bite
The Indian government collects Rs2.7 lakh crore annually from fuel excise duties, with current levies standing at Rs13 per litre of petrol and Rs10 per litre of diesel. In April 2025, excise was hiked by Rs2 per litre, generating an additional Rs32,000 crore in revenue.
 
State governments are no less dependent on fuel taxation. Their annual value-added tax (VAT) collections on fuel are around Rs2 lakh crore, as VAT—charged ad valorem—automatically rises when base prices stay high. On average, 30% of every litre of petrol and 26% of diesel goes to state VAT, making fuel one of the most lucrative revenue streams for states. Together, taxes account for nearly 46% of the price of petrol and 42% of diesel.
 
Marketing Margins: The Hidden Layer
Beyond taxes, OMCs have expanded their marketing margins dramatically. Profits on fuel sales alone have reached Rs15 per litre for petrol and Rs12 per litre for diesel, representing one of the largest hidden components in the retail price structure. Each US$1 per barrel drop in global crude prices boosts OMC margins by about Rs0.55 per litre, yet this gain is retained entirely by the companies.
 
Exports: Profits Over Pumps
Private refiners such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have converted discounted Russian crude into an export bonanza. Petroleum product exports hit US$60bn (billion) in FY24–25, with US$15bn worth shipped to the European Union (EU) alone, even as European buyers embargoed Russian oil. By refining discounted crude and selling high-margin products abroad, these refiners have prioritised exports over passing savings to domestic consumers.
 
Why the Consumer Pays the Price
Despite oil being deregulated on paper, retail prices are effectively administered. Governments prefer high prices to secure steady tax revenues, while OMCs justify their margins by citing past under-recoveries on liquified petroleum gas (LPG) subsidies. The result is a structural lock-in: low-cost crude imports benefit companies and governments while consumers bear persistently high pump prices.
 
Trump’s Taunt and the Unasked Question
US president Donald Trump’s rhetoric was inaccurate in framing India’s role, but it indirectly underscores a domestic question: if cheap Russian oil is in ‘India’s interest’, why does the Indian consumer not share in the benefit? The numbers point to an uncomfortable truth: the gains are concentrated in corporate balance sheets and government revenue streams, not household budgets.
 
A Call for Cheaper Oil
The Russian crude windfall should be more than a profit cushion for OMCs and a fiscal lifeline for governments. With oil marketing companies reporting profits in excess of Rs86,000 crore, central excise revenue touching Rs2.7 lakh crore, and state VAT adding another Rs2 lakh crore, it is clear that consumers have been excluded from the very benefits they were promised.
 
It is time to demand that oil marketing companies—especially private refiners—shave their swollen margins and that governments revisit punitive fuel taxes. Cheap oil must no longer remain locked away in corporate profits and public treasuries. It must translate into lower pump prices and genuine relief for India’s consumers, who have long borne the brunt of high fuel costs despite an era of discounted crude.
 
 
 
(Karan Bir Singh (KBS) Sidhu is a retired IAS officer and former Special Chief Secretary, Government of Punjab. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the University of Manchester, UK. He writes at the intersection of global trade negotiations, Trump-era tariff shocks, and contemporary geopolitics.)
Comments
Gupta10
6 months ago
I wonder why ML continues to stay negative in a one sided way in all its articles. Anyone writing negative is welcome even if the analysis is shallow and almost wrong as is the case with this article. Loads of false statements and inaccurate and incomplete analysis and missing facts.

1) At no point of time were discounts as high as 25-50%... pure guesswork of an ill informed writer. Who gives that much discount? Does this writer know anything about oil industry at all? A casual research of global articles on how Russian crude is being priced over the last 4 years would tell how the discounts have changed. Discounts were very briefly just above 10% when the war started and EU put a price cap, but it soon went down to under 10% and in the last 1 year, it has already shrunk to only $2-3 per barrel, which is less than 5%.

2) Govt of India levied export taxes on refined fuels immediately after Russian oil started flowing into India to take away the excess refining gains made by refiners as taxes. These export taxes were adjusted periodically based on the changing discount and market movements to ensure taxes went up in direct linkage with these discounts. So bulk of the gains went to GOI and no one else.

3) Comparing absolute profits makes no sense in a refining industry as any equity analyst will tell you, but who cares about facts and analysis when you are an IAS. If you want to really see the impact of the Russian discount on profits of Indian refiners, then study the delta between the global industry refining margins for the same complexity of each refinery (measured by Nelson Complexity Index) for each period before and after the war and see how the delta has changed. If the base refining margin itself is changing for the entire global industry (whether up or down), that cannot be combined in the aggregate to label everything as Russian gains. Total nonsense.

This is the problem with India.... every arm chair critic is supposedly an "expert" on anything and everything
achalmeena
8 months ago
You have numbers for PSUs but for Private refiners Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) you skipped the numbers convinently. Was it intentional as the profit of reliance and private is double the PSU?
dasgsou13
8 months ago
So apparently through these oil cos govt is also filling its coffers and leaving Indians to bleed under reeling inflation. US recent commentary on this with mention of few pvt companies benefitting from Russian oil is not incorrect may be..
Gupta10
Replied to dasgsou13 comment 6 months ago
bleed under reeling inflation? - wow, are you from Pakistan or Sri Lanka OR India ? Last I knew, Indian inflation has been fairly under control through these last 3 years.
r_ashok41
8 months ago
some of the same govt need to pass on to the citizens who are already ailing with high taxes and inflation or govt may do it just before some election in bihar and other states
dasgsou13
Replied to r_ashok41 comment 8 months ago
How long we will be dependent on elections to dole out benefits which we deserve as common man!!
pcjkineticpune
8 months ago
IN LONG RUN IT’s IN THE INTEREST OF INDIAN PUBLIC TO REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON PETROL and DEISEL… and THEREFORE TO CONTROL CONSUMPTION, IT’s VERY MUCH NECESSARY TO KEEP PRICE AS IT IS…. Govt. IS GIVING THOUSANDS OF CRORES OF RUPEES SUBSIDY TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES - THAT IS THE RIGHT ACTION IN RIGHT DIRECTION…. ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS AND FOUR WHEELERS HAVE HELP REDUCING PETRO CONSUMPTION…. REDUCTION OF FUEL PRICES BY RUSSIA IS TEMPORARY… IN LONG RUN WHETHER RUSSIA OR UAE OR AMERICA - ALL ARE GOING TO INCREASE OIL PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY… SO IT MAKE SENSE THAT WE REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON FUEL AND INCREASE USE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE… FURTHER ELECTRIC VEHICLES HELP IN REDUCING POLLUTION LEVEL SUBSTANTIALLY - IT WILL CERTAINLY HELP IMPROVING GENERAL PUBLIC’s HEALTH…. SO IT’S A WISE DECISION TO KEEP PETROL PRICE HIGHER AND GIVE SUBSIDIES TO PROMOTE ELECTRIC VEHICLES SALES…. POLITICAL MINDED PERSONS WILL ALWAYS CRITICISE GOVERNMENT ONLY BECAUSE OF THEIR SHORTSIGHTEDNESS.
gersappa
Replied to pcjkineticpune comment 8 months ago
Suppose central government were to reduce excise duties, what would be the scenerio. State governments will hike VAT to fund their freebies programme . Considering that states do not increase VAT and petrol and diesel indeed become substantially cheaper, then consumption will increase, leading to increased import of crude and increased sale of vehicles on already crowded streets.
bkochar1506
8 months ago
Today, India is excessively dependent on imported crude - the net trade deficit on crude and petroleum products is over $120 billion making our economy extremely vulnerable.

To reduce this dependency it is essential that India shifts to renewable energy based vehicles - OMCs should hence invest extremely aggressively in setting up solar and wind power projects - so that by 2040 at least 75% of vehicles are on renewable power. To support this energy transition, the Government must offer 5 yr interest free loans to match the investment made by OMCs
baskarans53
8 months ago
What about state VAT at 35% in most states which was hiked when centre reduced central excise a year ago?
meesam.up
8 months ago
Where r u now??? Do u have joined AAP, First ask your Punjab govt to reduce taxes
iaminprabhu
8 months ago
When OIL is DEREGULATED, can not the Common Consumer Organisation's or NGO file PIL or even COURTS take SUO MOTO CASE that affects EVERY person daily life and budget !?
sahasadana8
8 months ago
INDIAN PUBLIC ARE FOOLED BY ALL COMPRISING OIL COMPANIES, CENTRAL & STATE GOVT BY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LOWER RUSSIAN OIL PRICES BY INCREASING ED & GST. TRUMP HAS TAKEN RIGHT STEP TO END THIS BLUFFING GAME. INDIAN PUBLIC ARE NEVER BENEFITED FROM LOWER RUSSIAN CRUDE PRICES. THIS GAME SPEAKS ABOUT DOUBLE STANDARD OF OIL COMPANIES & GOVT WHICH HAVE NOT PASSED ON LOWER PRICES OF RUSSIAN OIL TO INDIAN ECONOMY WHICH IS VERY SERIOUS MATTER.
chitragupta.truesayer
8 months ago
One is really happy that Trump has imposed tariff on india. The indian govt and refiners screwed Indian public and bear the brunt of this cruelty. The market dynamic is only an eyewash befooling the public. Moreover, the mixing of ethanol of certain percentage also not passed on to the public i.e. equivalent percentage decrease in petrol. When the general public realise this fact, it will put a big dent on popularity of this govt.
panda.laxmikant25
8 months ago
It was triumphantly declared that petrol and diesel prices were deregulated and market linked with crude prices. Even before Ukraine War the OMCs were not allowed to increase petrol/diesel prices when crude prices went up before elections in ruling party controlled States. When crude prices were down the prices of petrol / diesel did not come down under vague pretexts of oil bonds, under recoveries etc. The middle class is being made to pay for subsidies given many schemes to buy votes without studying the end use of many populist schemes /doles to buy votes.
gbrhyd
Replied to panda.laxmikant25 comment 8 months ago
Exactly.. The middle class is the no body’s baby, neither central nor state.
venkatabashyam1932
8 months ago
What about the various state govts. They are not innocent babes, charging 100 to 150 % of Central govt taxes to fill their coffers. Worst offendets are West Bengal, Tamilnadu and Karnataka.
mudit3
8 months ago
The biggest beneficiary is the government of India which levies a windfall tax on crude oil imports without making any effort both by either risk taking and physical efforts.
srirohsid
8 months ago
Truth be told - common man is least priority for any political party and governments they run. They pocket the money to improve their revenues - pocket a portion of it in commissions when they spend the same. The private players make money and give back to political parties in some way a part of their profits. Common man is always a loser
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