Sloppy research by Fareed Zakaria & Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma?

Fareed Zakaria, quoting Ruchir Sharma and a Morgan Stanley research study, wrote that delayed reforms by Narendra Modi might get punished; Indian markets may retreat just as in Japan. But the Nikkei is now trading at a multi-year high

 

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, "radiates confidence", writes American journalist Fareed Zakaria, who had been an anti-Modi writer not too long ago. "The public lauds him, world leaders court him and the Bombay Stock Exchange continues to soar,” he says.

 

Zakaria, whose interview with Modi appeared on CNN yesterday, also mentions that “Modi’s honeymoon is coming to an end at home. In a series of by-elections, his party has done surprisingly poorly.” This makes Zakaria wonder if the problem with the new Prime Minister "turns out to be not that he is too bold but rather that he is not bold enough."

 

While he is entitled to his political opinion and to change it as often as he likes, Zakaria trips up while commenting on an unrelated area: the stock market. He quotes a research by Ruchir Sharma, head of Emerging Markets and Global Macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, saying “in those countries where leaders have wasted their honeymoon and delayed reforms too long, markets retreat, giving back most of their early gains.”

 

Looking back over the last 20 years at how the stock markets reacted to national elections in the world’s 20 largest democracies, “it becomes clear,” says Sharma, “that markets embrace the rise of new leaders, particularly if the new leaders arise in troubled economies, are seen as promising reformers, and win the election with a decisive mandate.”

 

In his research he found that “during the 18 months centred around the elections, the stock market outperformed the global average by a stunning 42 percentage points — with most of that gain coming before the vote”. In the second year, “those who failed to deliver — whether undone by political resistance, some new crisis, or the limits of their own competence — were getting punished by the market,” he argues.

 

Sharma, in his article titled ‘Modi should learn from Japan’s Abe that leaders who don’t deliver on reforms are punished’. points out that those who fail to deliver on reform — like Boris Yeltsin in Russia, Thabo Mbeki in South Africa, or Joseph Estrada in the Philippines — have been punished by democracy’s scorekeepers, the voters and the markets. Those who deliver — like Kim Dae Jung in South Korea, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during his first term in Brazil, or Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono during his first term in Indonesia — have been rewarded with high approval ratings and sustained bull markets.

 

Taking the example of Japan, Zakaria says, “Prime Minister Shinzo Abe eagerly embraced those policies that were politically popular — easy money and public spending — but never followed through on tough structural reforms. As a result, growth and stock market performance in Japan have slumped.” Quoting approvingly from this study, Zakaria argues that some of the recent stockmarket gains in India could disappear if Modi does not act quickly.

 

There is a small problem with this conclusion though. Zakaria, who has been accused of passing off other people’s stuff as his own, is plain wrong this time, for depending on this second-hand opinion sourced from Ruchir Sharma.

 

Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister in December 2012. By December 2013, the Nikkei, Japan’s stock market index, was up by more than 60% over the year. While the Japanese market slipped by 10%-12% since the beginning of 2014, it is now back near its multi-year high and the trend is now firmly upwards.

 

Sharma had written in his analysis, that it is also too early to judge Modi, who seems to be starting with a small-bore strategy similar to the one to which Abe has retreated.

 

“While there are signs of the economy picking up,” he mentions, “in financial circles there are already rumblings of discontent over Modi’s failure to articulate a programme of major reforms.” “The political honeymoon for new leaders,” he cautions, “lasts no more than 12 to 18 months. In the second year, the market often passes judgement on new leaders, as seen in Japan,” wrote Ruchir. While this impressed Zakaria, it has turned out to be wrong.

Comments
rihanahmad
1 decade ago
While I am no follower of Ruchir Sharma , Morgan stanley or Farid Zakaria , it seems that yr own views are biased and they are showing how little u know of the workings of the stock market . What exactly are the authors trying to say ? I read the article three times . It still conveys no additional meaning . Other than to say , that Ruchir Sharma has been wrong so far on the markets in India , and that Fareed Zakaria has been quoting him , what are the authors exactly saying ? Is one not entitled to an opinion ? Is forecasting the direction of the markets a 100% accurate game ? Pl be clear ...and don't think that u are an expert on everything . There are other ways to defend Modi than making the job of forecasters more hazardous . Try it yourself .
contrarian
Replied to rihanahmad comment 1 decade ago
Well, I am average reader of this site for many years. I read a lot and have found Moneylife predictions quite accurate. If you are not familiar you may like to read more. If you cannot understand this simple, could it be you? Or what your own biases are? It happens
SuchindranathAiyerS
1 decade ago
While setting aside discussions on the research competence of the impugned for whom I have scant respect, I must say that their conclusion is not far off the mark. Japan and India have a wide chasm of differences, but quality holds the key. While Japan is dedicated to continuous improvement and the pursuit of excellence in all its endeavours with very high standards of accountability, India struggles with its 67 years old inertia of venerating and pampering backwardness and valuing corruption while holding all those in public office and government office to be above the law. I watched Japan's Cabinet Secretary, Fukuda handcuffed in Parliament and marched off like a common felon for corruption. In Japan Prime Ministers come and go if they fail to deliver and cannot hang on for a decade on the back of insouciance, profligacy and unaccountable corruption as in India. Above all Japan has rule of law and equality under law and, therefore, the lowest crime rate in the World while valuing its heritage, hereditary culture and education that India has done som much to "Social Engineer" out of existence with its "Four legs good, two legs bad", "All animals are equal but some are more equal than others" and other similar mantras. While the World is disappointed with Japan for decades of stagflation, the Japanese are not for they have lived well with the very best quality of life in the World. From personal experience, I would rate quality of life in Japan over several decades to be far superior to life anywhere else on this planet. They may now rise to a higher orbit of prosperity depending on how well, (and how cautiously), they militarise in response to the challenge posed by a rising China and a declining US.
Aditya G
1 decade ago
On a related note, Zakaria's reputation has nose-dived after MORE allegations of plagiarism have surfaced. And the evidence is incriminating to say the least; it goes beyond the New Yorker article in which he was suspended, only for a brief while. The transgressions are just unbelievable. And I don't know why CNN hasn't fired him yet.

The whole blow-by-blow account of his blatant plagiarism can be accessed here: http://ourbadmedia.wordpress.com/2014/09...

It's a shame that Zakaria's stock value is zero now. I just don't pay attention to him anymore. It's a surprise that he's keeping his job and even interviewed Modi!

Cheers,
Adi.
Bankimchandra Desai
1 decade ago


After all whose brief is this ?
Ruchir Sharma needs to research his firm Morgan Stanley first. World economy or any emerging market is beyond his capacity. i am Morgan Stanley investor and my wallet is fleeced. I am on a crossroad, neither I can sell nor I can buy. Why ? Keeping my money in MS I lost much. Now I have units just to watch and experience how this sort of companies behave ! That is enough for Ruchir Sharma.
Fareed Zakaria is a faceless journalist. Anyone with self respect and professional honour would have retired .He has not . The reasons are obvious. His masters need him and he needs them.any one would not take his words seriously.
Anything said or written by Ruchir Sharma & Fareed Zakaria requires to be subjected to all interrogatives before believing and deciding the merits of the news or write up.









Sloppy research by Fareed Zakaria & Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma?

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Zakaria, quoting Ruchir Sharma, says markets retreat if reforms not done quickly. But Nikkei has pushed higher even though...
R Balakrishnan
1 decade ago
Amazing how these ANALysts jump to near conclusions in less than four months! And back it with statistics that have no relevance. This is the creation of the SELL side ANALysts who find a curve to fit every straight line.
And why should we bother about a Zakaria who was sacked from the print media and now is in the visual media? No investor follows him.And I bet his interview is more followed and analysed by Indian media rather than anyone else.
Nilesh KAMERKAR
1 decade ago
It seems first a theory was formed & later on evidence was sourced to prove the theory.
Amol Chavan
1 decade ago
If we hate somebody then we tend to not evaluate the theory put against the person before backing it up.
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