Monsoon To Be Wetter Than Usual, IMD Sees 105% Rainfall in 2025
Moneylife Digital Team 15 April 2025
India’s southwest monsoon for 2025 is expected to be above normal, with the country likely to receive 105% of its long-period average (LPA) rainfall, according to the India meteorological department’s (IMD) long-range forecast. The positive monsoon outlook brings hope for a strong agricultural season and could ease inflationary pressures, especially on food prices. It also comes as a relief following erratic rainfall patterns in previous years. 
 
The LPA — the average monsoon rainfall recorded between 1971 and 2020 — is 87cm (centimetres). IMD's models indicate a 59% probability of above-normal or excess rainfall during the June to September season.
 
Currently, IMD says neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean. "However, atmospheric patterns resemble La Niña, which is often associated with strong monsoons in India. Climate models, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), suggest that neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the monsoon."
 
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — another key oceanic factor affecting rainfall — also remains in a neutral phase. Forecasts indicate it is likely to stay neutral throughout the season.
 
Interestingly, IMD says snow cover in Eurasia and the northern hemisphere has been below normal over the past three months. Historically, reduced snow cover in these regions is linked to stronger Indian summer monsoons, due to associated changes in land-ocean temperature gradients.
 
The IMD’s long-range forecast is based on dynamical and statistical models, using inputs from a range of global climate prediction centres. The forecast also includes spatial predictions which suggest most parts of India will receive above-normal rainfall, except some areas in northwest, northeast and south peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall may occur.
 
IMD will issue an updated forecast at the end of May, with more detailed regional predictions and June-specific expectations.
 
However, experts advise caution and close monitoring of oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the coming weeks.
 
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