Modi Sarkar-2.0: What Should We Look Forward to?
Prime minister (PM) Narendra Modi has been voted back to power with a resounding mandate, a clear majority and unfettered freedom to shape the destiny of this country. ModiSarkar-1.0 was voted in on the promise of economic, administrative and civic reform as well as elimination of black money and corruption. The 2019 campaign has been bitter, divisive and vastly different; but, once again, the overwhelming mandate is for one man—Narendra Modi, backed by the phenomenal organisational skills, tactics and strategising ability of Amit Shah. It spoke little about the promise of 2014, and yet, a large enough segment of the population seems to believe that Mr Modi deserved another chance to deliver.
 
The question is: Deliver what? For a chunk of Mr Modi’s supporters, it is probably a misguided notion of Hindutva in peril, the Ram Temple in Ayodhya or cow protection. For others, it may be about unquestioning nationalism and unbridled machismo directed at Pakistan. Some influential pro-BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) voices are arguing that the voter was unconcerned about economic issues. The angry and abusive rhetoric of ardent party supporters, even in victory, seems to support the belief that people voted for partisan and divisive politics. But believing this to be the manadate could turn out to be a huge mistake. 
 
Those who took the Sensex to new benchmark of 40,000 on Thursday haven’t really forgotten about demonetisation, job losses, economic slowdown, increased red-tape and compliances. They expect Modi Sarkar-2.0 to be about reform and development. In fact, most BJP supporters are still waiting for achche din and believe that the Mr Modi is sincere about his promises and only needs more time to deliver on growth and development. 
 
That the Opposition parties had no credible economic agenda or alternative vision also helped the BJP. In its second term, the government’s priority should be on alleviating farmer distress, especially with a looming drought in many states, job creation and boosting consumption. But here are a few larger issues that also need urgent attention. 
 
Goods and Service Tax (GST): Mr Modi has beaten a worldwide jinx by becoming the first government that introduced GST—dubbed the Gabbar Singh Tax—to return to power. But the Indian GST is far from a simple, single tax. The collection system continues to be a work-in-progress; evasion is rampant; while law-abiding businesses pay extra by outsourcing GST filing since they are unable to deal with frequent tinkering, complex systems and draconian penalties. CA (chartered accountant) Nikhil Vadia, a big BJP supporter, has listed down the quick summary of issues on GST and on GSTR9 that need clarification.
 
Bankruptcy Code: The insolvency and bankruptcy code (IBC) got off to a good start but needs to be brought back on track urgently. Lenders taking a haircut of 99% (they will recover only Rs150 crore of their Rs20,000 crore lending) in the controversial Aircel has to be the lowest point, along with the dubious move by bankers to allow fugitive promoters of the Sterling Biotech group to get back their companies paying up less than half their dues to public sector banks (PSBs) obtained from unknown sources. 
 
The biggest issue with bankruptcy resolution is the corrupt nexus between lenders, resolution professionals and wilful defaulters. A ‘surgical strike’ on a dozen dirty deals, which are already in the public domain, would send the right signal to hundreds of other cases queuing up before bankruptcy courts. 
 
We also need a better quality of appointments at the NCLTs (National Company Law Tribunals) and a signal from the government to corporate India that gaming the legal system to delay decisions will not be taken kindly to. To my mind, three cases will signal the government’s intent—the sale of Essar Steel, how it deals with the Sterling group, and Jet Airways. The last case is important because banks, with support from the government (politicians and bureaucrats), seem determined to keep the founder Naresh Goyal in the picture even while they seek to bring in the Hinduja group as white knight, while the losses will be dumped on banks and, indirectly, the exchequer. 
 
Public Sector Banks: We need a solution to bleeding PSBs. Business and industry, celebrating the Sensex at 40,000, are already demanding a ‘massive recapitalisation’ of PSBs. Remember, when banks are recapitalised through the exchequer and go on to lose that money again, even the poorest Indian, who has no access to two square meals a day, is helping payback the bad loans our industrialists have siphoned off. Nearly two lakh crore rupees have been written off by PSBs in the past two years alone. 
 
Indians continue to trust PSBs because the implied sovereign guarantee provides a sense of security to our deposits; but these directed bailouts to help big defaulters, cannot keep draining valuable national resources. PSBs have to be made accountable, possibly through privatisation, while bank unions argue for better autonomy and accountability for top management and a protection of unionised jobs. It is unclear how this will work.
 
The messy solution of merging PSBs, as has been done with State Bank of India’s affiliates or Bank of Baroda and two others, is also not an answer. India needs large banks which people can trust. That requires new licences, faster growth and pragmatic policies on ownership and shareholding. 
 
We have seen that unsupervised and powerful private institutions like the National Stock Exchange or Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services or National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) actively work to ensure regulatory capture and avoid public scrutiny and disclosures. Listed PSBs are slightly more transparent, but ensuring accountability of top management seems like a utopian idea today and privatisation may be the only
long-term option. 
 
Regulatory Accountability: With five full years ahead of it, Modi Sarkar2.0 will do the country a big favour by making regulators accountable. If bankers can be jailed for bad loans long after retirement, why can’t regulators be held accountable for turning a blind eye to massive systemic blow-ups like the shadow banking crisis triggered by the collapse of Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services? We have plenty of evidence that star governors of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had ignored whistleblowers’ warnings. The problem is not limited to RBI. There is a need to restructure the insurance regulator and move its head office to Mumbai or Delhi, where it will stop being a post-retirement sinecure for bureaucrats and insurance officials. 
 
The same applies to the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) which has turned into a giant bureaucracy with no focus on effective enforcement or investor protection. Senior SEBI officials openly admit that they prefer policy prescriptions to enforcement and investigation. At the same time, we have plenty of evidence of inordinate time and money being spent on litigation in what appears to be vindictive action in cases, involving small sums of money, while large cases of misdemeanour are quietly settled with minimal disclosures. 
 
There is no evaluation of SEBI’s enforcement action or litigation in terms time and money spent versus their outcomes. Naturally, there is no accountability either. In fact, for nearly two decades, the head of the legal department had been on three-year contracts, extended at the will of successive SEBI chairmen, allowing concentration of power at the top.
 
A similar clean at the electricity and telecom regulatory bodies is imperative for any privatisation or disinvestment initiatives to work. Otherwise, we will continue to transfer ownership from one public sector undertaking to another and call it disinvestment, while crony capitalists take advantage of all privatisation initiatives. 
 
Finally, there is a slew of issues that need to be addressed afresh. The Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation Act (LARA) needs to be revived and the draconian laws that empowered tax officials as a cover-up for the botched up demonetisation process, need to be rolled back. The work on smart cities needs to be stepped up to help job creation and disperse urbanisation. The Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA) needs to be strengthened across states if the promise of ‘Housing for All By 2022’ has to be fulfilled. A powerful regulator is imperative for this sector that remains saddled with unkept promises, large-scale cheating and far too much red-tape and consequent corruption. 
 
Indians have been awed, once again, by the formidable vote-winning machine of Mr Modi. Doesn't he wish that the Indians are even more awed by his transformation of India into a prosperous, economically powerful and peaceful country? If so, there’s no time to waste.
 
 
Comments
Vydehi
7 years ago
I think that we should contain the euphoria about Modi 2 and restrain ourselves. I am a school teacher and we were discussing the rot in the education system in the staff room some weeks ago. Javadekar and Smrita Irani did little when they were in charge of education excepting courting controversies (especially the latter). Javadekar did a superficial job with UGC and AICTE and other defunct institutions unleashing poor policies one after the another. Javadekar was in any way the wrong choice. Some private universities had cheated students but he took no action. Private universities are mushrooming everywhere and making tons of black money. What is the Government going to do about that?

Modi is lucky because he has a fragile Opposition. Yes, he has weaved his magic; he is hardworking, but he should introspect on his own performance. People did not vote for BJP but simply voted for Modi's charisma. I pray that he doesn't disappoint people. What is needed is a major overhaul of the banking system and the education system.

None of the educational institutions are following 5th pay, 6th pay or 10th pay. So what is the point in introducing these schemes? The financial and insurance regulators need tight controlling because regulators are headed by people. There was a tiff between Governor and Deputy Governor and they take to media to air their views. Why?

Modi should ensure that his team doesn't derail the good intentions that he has. Having said this, I must say that I wasn't too happy with his first term. I appreciate his marketing skills.

Rahul Gandhi's party was in power in Karnataka. But what did he do? Nothing! Today Karnataka is being ruled by comedians who don't deserve to be in the seat of power. It is the most corrupt state in India. The chief minister of Karnataka is making a fool of himself by visiting temples every now and then, staying in a 5-star hotel, pushing his son in politics, then posing for cameras in villages... I even saw a photo on social media where he is seen defecating in the open ... just to depict the plight of the villagers. Is this the way the head of a state behaves?

DARTH Vader
7 years ago
The economy can improve quickly only on paper by fudging data and presenting false status reports on economy while media and industrialist are busy lavishing praise on the PM. The simple truth is that Indian companies cannot compete globally. Most Indian industrialists are the beneficiaries of government's protectionism and free access to capital through pubic sector banks. Modi government will only encourage mob lynching, riots, gujaratis fleeing after swindling the people. Masssive unemployment will only help with more goons joining RSS, VHP and various other sister/brother organisations. It a win-win situation for Modi.
Subhash Chand Garg
7 years ago
You have mentioned creation of a large private bank but it reminds of global trust bank and now yes bank fiasco. Also remember nsel and ilfs are also private institutions. Earlier also a theory was propagated by misguided consultants that privatisation of infrastructure will solve problems. But see all the big private infrastructure projects are in doldrums and requires settlement from financial institutions from public money. The real solution is to not pampers the private institutions from public money and instead strengthen the good public institutions to create huge infrastructure.
ashok singhania
7 years ago
STATE OF ECONOMY PART8 SAYS THAT first it was invesment and saving has fallen now consumption has also fallen . if invesment goes down atleast some part of surplus should be used for consumption but that is not happening cleary says of coming crisis. but why it is happening . this is happening because as govt has reduce its liability from 120% of gdp in 2004%to 56% . govt liability is nothing but surplus of private sector . this extra saving also allows to solve the liquidity problem of financial system which india is experencing and all the patch workdone by rbi to tackle liquidity crisis is bound to fail due to fiscal prudence policy of govt of india. FIRST THING GOVT MUST DO IS INCREASE FISCAL DEFECIT TO 6.6% AND HELP STATE GOVT TO CREATE 20LAKH JOBS ANUALLY. BY REDUCING STATE GOVT DEBT BY1%OF GDP ANUALLY.
ashok singhania
7 years ago
Ashok Singhania pankaji fscal prudence policy is bigger fraud then this. i would like to draw your attention to person name surabh mukherjee he is head of marcellous invesment and was with ambit captail six month back and has written a very intresting book call coffee can investing. before 2007 he was in uk for twenty years where he he had lot of clientsinvesting in financial markets. he sold his entire firm and made all the clients sell financial asset and he bagpacked and came back to india in 2007 and just ayear later global financial crisis happened and rest is history. he undertood that to borrow short and lend long model is not sustainabyle and crisis would happen soon. in india he has predicted that nifty will soon fall to 9500 by august quater. you have already seen huge patch work done by rbi to tackle the liquidity crisis but it is also going to fail. liquidity in financial system is directly realted to amount of govt debt in financial system . in current account defecit nation like india. govt debt has fallen to as low as 48% of gdp and private debt is equal to 92%of gdp state debt 25% private sector 54% and household 18%. ideally private debt should be equal to govt debt for financial system to function perfectly. state govt debt and local govt debt are included in private debt as they cannot issue their own currencylike private sector and household sectorand have to earn like them to function. if govt sticks to fiscal prudence policy then we are headed for major economic crisis in coming years beware. govt debt was legalize in 1933 to solve liquiduty problems of banks there are two problem which gold bugs shout ARE not solvable first is value of currency and second one i dont remember has been clearly stated by modern monetary theory.
SUNIL REBELLO
7 years ago
GOD HAS PUT MODI AT THE HEAD OF INDIA WITH A PURPOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Suketu Shah
7 years ago
The spine and heart of Modi 2.0 performance wl be based on performance of India's finance minister.But firstly you need to have the right person as FM-you cannot have a CA or lawyer.You need an econ0mist as cancer(the state of India economy thanks to Jaitly) cannot be treated with CA kind of "bandaid" just like you cannot have Ishant Sharma as opening batsman for India.

Only 1 man can resurrect India from the stagnation economy Dr Swamy.no one else.
K V RAO
Replied to Suketu Shah comment 7 years ago
The problem with Dr.Swamy(sorry I am not eligible to analyse his persona), an otherwise eminent person is his inability to get along with his peers. In politics, intelligence, knowledge, subject skills, domain expertise, alone do not matter. Perhaps Dr. Swamy reckons others ( even Modi, Amit Shah included)are not a match for him. This is true. But that truth is limited to financial expertise but not to cool relationship that is required to get along.
Saravanan R
Replied to K V RAO comment 7 years ago
True. Taking essential persons along in confidence is his problem. He has
Saravanan R
Replied to Saravanan R comment 7 years ago
...the guts and the source of information to fix the evading personlities, both in bureaucracy and politics. His estranging attitude unexpectedly is his Achille's heels.
Aditya G
Replied to Suketu Shah comment 7 years ago
I agree. Dr Swamy will be a very good choice. But I don't know if he gets well along with Shah and Modi.
SuchindranathAiyerS
7 years ago
In word and deed, Modi has proved to be a Gandhist, Nehruvian, Ambedkarite championing the status quo- ante from Constitution to the tried and proven failed policies of Quota (Reservation-License Raj) and Corruption (Extortion-Scam Raj). So I expect the next five years to be not very different from the last five albeit under the cover of the soud and bluster of Monkey Bath and sweeping proclamations as well as ineffectual distractions that cause inconvenience to the Non VIP Indian to know practial purpose. He is unlikely to deliver on any or most of the expectations of those who voted him to power.

Here is my take on the changes wrought by his first rein:

Two positive changes:

(1) Two strikes within Pakistan controlled territory to break the prolonged US made policy that India must fight all its wars within its own borders, and

(2) Avoiding Grand Larceny of the scale established by previous Governments

Four negative changes:

The formalization and institutionalization of corruption, instead of eliminating it, through

(a) retrospective exemption of political parties from the FCRA,

(b) the creation of “election bonds”,

(c) the exemption of lawyers from GST to enable corruption of Judges, and

(d) the criminalizing of the victims of extortion to grant impunity to Judges, Bureaucrats, Police and politicians to extort money and wealth.
Several Aborted and Failed changes which created turmoil and misery to the common man such as the attempt to tax Employee Provident Fund, to eliminate black money and forged currency from Pakistan and China funding Islam and Maoism within India through demonetization

The rest was all more of the same, albeit further skewed against the Non VIP citizen, such as reservations, atrocities act, arms act, GST, retrospective taxation etc and the Khangress Bill that it made into law for Neta-Babus to go abroad for medical treatment at my expense thus escaping the Quota (Reservations-License Raj) and Corruption (Extortion-Scams) Medical Services within India to which the Non VIP citizen is condemned and maintaining the Nationalization of temples for India’s officialdom of atheists and non “Hindu”s (such as Moslems, Christians, SC/ST etc) to plunder.

The BJP style of governance and policy formulation represented an excessive reliance on corrupt bureaucrats (including super cops and public sector / bank officials) completely out of touch with the ground reality of the Non VIP citizen and India and their own disconnect with the reality of India or with History, Science, Technology. Sociology, Human Resources Development, Law and Economics. This last brought them much closer to the intellectual level of the Non VIP citizen.

As regards the economy, the Indian Economic slow down has just begun and is very alarming because the economy, which has been ground down to the brink since seventy years, has few options for recovery other than to invest heavily in infrastructure through deficit finance or international borrowing, leading inevitably to inflation, and corruption, thereby increasing the percentage of the impoverished and all round debility of India as a Nation.

India is more of a command economy now than in 2014 and, therefore, lacks the resilience of a free market economy. Most importantly, the demand (desire backed by purchasing power) is mostly in the non productive hands of the State and employees of the State which reflects in the high import bill further accentuated by Indian Industry being unable to compete on quality and price Internationally owing to having to fund State profligacy by means of taxes and tolerance to poor infrastructure from the Judicial System, Health Services, Financial Services and Public Works to Law and Order and Repulsive “Governance”, laws and regulatory framework which forces business and industry, apart from individuals, to submit to extortion by those on State payroll.


krishna
Replied to SuchindranathAiyerS comment 7 years ago
@Iyer You have forgotten to mention 86L crores debt increased rapidly. And in future, a transaction charge awaiting. For instance if i do eft from my sbi to icici. It asks " reason for transfer".
SuchindranathAiyerS
Replied to krishna comment 7 years ago
True. And a lot more too.

Modi was brought back to power by the grotesque opposition comprising such mad, yet cunning imbeciles such as Momoto Bannerjee, Pinarayi Vijayan, Siddaramaiah Sultan and of, course, the peerless Janayudhari Raoul Vinci Kaul Dattereya Khan

By contrast, Modi seemed the lesser evil.

But I voted NOTA.
K V RAO
Replied to SuchindranathAiyerS comment 7 years ago
Knowing Iyer personally, I am afraid of penning thoughts against him. Still, compulsions of his views in my mind force me to write this rejoinder. Iyer Sir, nothing wrong if you have narrated certain points that carve out negative contributions of Modi 0.1. But if you have not been able to list at least a few of good contributions, you have to revisit your mind. For an intelligent person in you, I cannot suggest any more.
SuchindranathAiyerS
Replied to K V RAO comment 7 years ago
I began with the good news. Please read again.
K V RAO
Replied to SuchindranathAiyerS comment 7 years ago
I stand corrected. Yet your positive flow is quite inadequate and does not cover Modi 1.0 achievements.
SuchindranathAiyerS
Replied to K V RAO comment 7 years ago
This is my take on Modi. And I stand by it. An absolute disappointment except to those Bollywood educated Indian who enjoyed his turbans, antics, hugga-bugga and monkey bath.

Modi was brought back to power by the grotesque opposition comprising such mad, yet cunning imbeciles such as Momoto Bannerjee, Pinarayi Vijayan, Siddaramaiah Sultan and of, course, the peerless Janayudhari Raoul Vinci Kaul Dattereya Khan

By contrast, Modi seemed the lesser evil.

But I voted NOTA.

.


K V RAO
Replied to SuchindranathAiyerS comment 7 years ago
Though I beg to differ, I enjoy your language.
AAR
Replied to SuchindranathAiyerS comment 7 years ago
Bollywood educated Indians. Well said.
JAYENDRA PANDYA
7 years ago
We look forward to:
1- Tight fiscal management to contain budgetary deficit within manageable level.
2- Lean & mean management. Remove all noon-essential posts, offices and secretaries
3- Expedite good administrative & developmental reforms.
4- Fixing of accountability and make available performances of each offices.
5- Promote those who are good performers on the basis of their merits.
6- Make economic offence (above certain limit) as a non-bailable crime as treat it as crime-against-nation.
7- Control and discourage cheap imports of unnecessary products being dumped through online portals. They are bleeding our economy badly. It is adversely affecting our manufacturing sector and resulting in unemployment.
8- Make minimum national service (in any form-Scout, RSP, health volunteering, NCC etc.) compulsory for higher secondary and degree students before their graduation to inculcate patriotism and discipline.

and the list continues....
shadi katyal
Replied to JAYENDRA PANDYA comment 7 years ago
I wish I could bless your list of what we look forward but what fails me that why we forget the past 5 years where figures of GDP er lied and no investments and industry ever even purposed .We lost more time in religious fervor and lynching,lawlessness and rapes.World and investors are not blind to our ground realities though we may feel great now. There is nothing in the agenda for future .
Nation needs lot of amendments in Union and Labour laws as well as banking
How do we call this party being honest when she sneaked in Election Bonds and gave tickets to terrorist or criminals.
Are you aware that present parliament has the biggest accused criminals around 50% . How will they help the economy and remove corruption.
Has God realy blessed this land with such leaders or cursed , time will tell
shadi katyal
7 years ago
One wonder how you can have so much expectations when the past 5 years have been blank except Hate,lynching and rapes etc.Evidently the result show that either our majority of voters are the most backward or ignorant of the realities of life as religion plays more important part than Roti Kapada and Makan.
Modi has thanked EC for their cooperation all round and question of EVM still remains but it is moot now. Where is any economic development agenda?
Can this victory of Modi bring back Law and Ordeer so we can show the world that we are capable to move ahead without any mob rule and thus invite investments which have left our soil for good.
Is the nation willing to develop first or need Ram Temple and Gau Rakshak and lynchings.
Aditya G
7 years ago
Revamping bureaucracy, civil services, probationary officers & bankers should be the first priority. Without an able bureaucracy and such, none of the points you mentioned is likely to work. Otherwise, the next generation of politicians and electorate will have to deal with a bunch of incompetent jokers. The future of our institutions depends on talent and talent alone. Also, machine learning & AI will likely render jobs obsolete though it is a decade or two away.

In a nutshell, education & skills = talent.

Just my 2 cents.
K V RAO
7 years ago
Expectations reduce joy. Your feature is full of expectations. Raising expectations is the easiest of tasks.

Repeatedly you are suggesting privatisation as a solution to our ailing Public Sector Banks (PSBs). Yes it's a good panacea. Can you suggest how do we handle an important stake holder (read highly unionised militant unproductive staff)? They have opposed privatisation tooth and nail.

I agree mergers is not a solution. Mergers being touted by a group of intelligentsia who are afraid of practical but difficult solutions.

I have taken up only the segment of PSBs. There are other issues as well.

One thing is sure. We have a serious and no non-sense boss leading the country. Have faith as having faith in God. Where there is FAITH there is no DOUBT and vice versa.

Others may take up issues not referred here.


Sucheta Dalal
Replied to K V RAO comment 7 years ago
With due respect Mr Rao, you need to read more of what we write. We have been interacting closely with bank unions. yes, they have opposed privatisation tooth and nail, with very little success -- SBI sister banks, IDBI, Bank of Baroda -- are you not following the news? Instead of such manipulation a clear policy allows unions to make demands and bargain for a better deal. This slow encroachment of their rights is bad for customers, unions, employees and the country.
Vydehi
Replied to Sucheta Dalal comment 7 years ago
I fail to understand how the Government can plan mergers without looking at the customer's point of view. SBI staff terrorize people all the time and they can afford to treat the customers very badly. After the merger of Bank of Baroda with Vijaya and Dena, their service has deteriorated beyond imagination. SBI has levied so many hidden charges on hapless customers. I don't think privatization of banks is the solution. Are private banks delivering better service than nationalized banks? They only charge you more and want to push all investment schemes on you. The Government should make RBI accountable for PSU Banks. Tighten the control on PSU banks and closely monitor their political connections. I read somewhere that Canara Bank has given loan to the IMA owner in Bangalore to the tune of Rs 50 crores without any kind of security or collateral? The loan was sanctioned just because an MLA in Bangalore threatened the bank to give the loan.
AAR
7 years ago
First round, Modi knocked us off with Demonetisation, GST, Hindutva, removing the independent functioning of many regulatory agencies, Rafale. Not sure what other punches he has for us in the second round.
K V RAO
Replied to AAR comment 7 years ago
Your response is too harsh against Modi. Please remember winning Elections in India with such a massive mandate is not a joke to say the least. Please recognise the efforts and home work done by BJP. If you are not able to appreciate for whatever reasons, for God's sake please, again please don't undermine the party that romped home with massive majority.

In a short write up like this I am unable to defend Demonetisation and GST. They are very big issues and cannot be supported or criticised in a few lines.
bhushan
7 years ago
I am a diehard supporter of BJP and Mr. Modi. As he said in his first speech after the victory that he may make mistakes but his intentions would never be malicious. You have very effectively highlighted the required urgent actions to steer the economy clear of various threats and put it back on rails and I think you have hit the nail on its head on every single point. Quite commendable. Is there no way to bring these to the attention of the PM and his FM in time to come. I heard they do take note of letters written to them and some such action on your part, as yours is a well-known name, may bear fruits.
Chandragupta Acharya
7 years ago
Foreign policy, internal security, inflation control, fight against corruption, economic growth, external security, law and order, toilets and cleanliness awareness, infrastructure development - roads, railways, airports, electricity, development of the neglected regions like North East. In almost all areas which matter, Modi government did better than what anyone has seen before from any other government. That is the reason people voted for Modi.
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