Using simple math and statistics, lots of common sense and a good understanding of the ground reality, can yield a very good forecast or predictions about the outcome of elections based on opinion polls and exit polls. These ingredients, along with domain knowledge, are what go into psephology, explained Dr Karandikar, who has a success rate of 85% in his predictions. He repeatedly emphasised that, if ethically done by following robust statistical methodology, opinion polls can be fairly accurate. But since the results are based on probability, there is always the chance that they could, in some situations, be off the mark.
Dr Karandikar started his discussion by talking about the scientific basis of opinion polls, their power as well as limitations. The primary aspect of an opinion poll is the sample used to get a truly representative sample in a country with a voting population as large as India’s. He demonstrated an experiment to the audience using probability theory and said that opinion polls use a basic probability calculation to estimate the likelihood of voters’ preferences based on which they can predict who will win in an election.
He also mentioned that the pre-election polls have a low predictive power due to volatility of opinion, not all respondents may vote and some may hide the truth as well. “Exit polls were devised to correct these effects: the gap between the opinion poll and date of voting and also the fact that only between 50% and 70% voters actually vote,” he explained. In India, “leaders change parties and parties change alliances, leading to instability in voter preferences,” he pointed out. Referring to previous surveys, he said that voters change their preferences across dates, and staggered polling dates can also affect voter preferences.
Anand Halve, brand strategist and co-founder of chlorophyll, asked whether people accurately respond to sensitive data. Dr Karandikar explained how questionnaires are prepared and other statistical techniques used to resolve issues such as replying to sensitive questions.
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