Geopolitical tensions have forced India into a precarious balancing act, with punitive United States (US) sanctions threatening its energy security, while dependence on Russia simultaneously deepens in critical sectors like fertilisers. The intensification of US sanctions targeting Russia’s leading oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, is poised to disrupt the crude supply to major private Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Nayara Energy (49% owned by Rosneft). Russia currently supplies 35%-40% of India's crude oil volume, a share if disrupted, risks inflating India’s annual crude import bill, currently estimated at Rs2.7 lakh crore. This energy vulnerability is juxtaposed against a surging strategic reliance on Moscow for agricultural inputs; the share of Russian fertilisers in India’s total imports climbed from 7.68% in 2017-18 to an estimated 27% in 2023-24, with imports of Russian urea alone projected to reach 1,573,000 tonnes this year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is actively diversifying its foreign exchange (forex) reserves. Gold reserves have grown by 600kg (kilograms) this financial year (FY), surpassing 880 tonnes in total, with gold's valuation in reserves hitting a high of US$102.365bn (billion), accounting for 13.6% of India’s total US$698bn forex reserves. Concurrently, RBI’s holdings of US Treasury securities have declined to a seven-month low of US$219bn, reflecting a defensive posture that mirrors the behaviour of central banks globally.
India's manufacturing revival remains vulnerable to commodity pricing volatility and global supply-chain chokepoints. In the solar energy segment, Chinese firm LONGi Green Energy contracted India’s Inox Solar for a Rs7,000 crore deal to supply 5GW (gigawatts) of modules, reflecting a robust environment where India’s module capacity exceeds 100GW.
The Indian chemicals sector is grappling with a dichotomy of performance, where volume recovery in certain niches is being undermined by persistent global commodity price deflation and oversupply, resulting in subdued overall growth. Brokerage estimates for the September 2025 quarter suggest a modest year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) of 4% and net profit growth of only approximately 1%. Margin compression is driven by persistent weakness in global crude oil prices which averaged US$69/barrel in September, down from US$80 a year earlier, leading to lower prices for key inputs like benzene and acetone. In contrast, firms focused on specialty chemicals, such as SRF and Gujarat Fluorochemicals, are anticipated to outperform, potentially doubling operating profits due to strong demand for refrigerants and fluorochemicals. Meanwhile, the agro-chemicals segment is facing distinct headwinds from regulatory measures and adverse weather, underscoring a cautious near-term outlook for investors awaiting clarity on demand trends and US tariff decisions.
Recent cuts to goods and services tax (GST) rates propelled India’s passenger vehicles (PV) market to a record dhanteras, with over 100,000 units delivered in 24 hours (estimated sales value between Rs8,500 crore and Rs10,000 crore), surpassing previous peak forecasts. However, the fragility of complex manufacturing ecosystems was starkly highlighted by the cyber attack on Tata Motors’ Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), resulting in a massive Rs6,300 crore loss, impacting production for five weeks. Concurrently, the auto-ancillary sector faces trade pressure, with the fourth-largest tyre manufacturer, Ceat, planning to pass on the full impact of increased US tariffs to customers. This decision, which affects its growing US presence largely established through the Camso acquisition for US$225mn (million) (approximately Rs1,900 crore), demonstrates how geopolitical trade tensions are being monetised and transferred down the value chain.
The reset in India-China diplomatic ties is allowing Chinese contract manufacturers to deepen their footprint in the Indian smartphone sector, even as they operate under tighter profit margins than their domestic competitors. Firms, like DBG and BYD, are securing increasing orders from major Chinese brands. DBG, operating a plant in Haryana, saw its market share in India’s contract manufacturing segment expand significantly, from 13% in Q125-26 to 21% by the end of September. Despite these gains, Chinese manufacturers, like BYD and DBG, face lower operating margins of 2.3%-2.4%, compared to the 2.8%-2.9% enjoyed by Indian EMS (electronics manufacturing services) player,s such as Dixon Technologies and Bhagwati Products. This renewed expansion also involves Chinese ODMs (original design manufacturers), like Longcheer and Huaqin, partnering with Indian firms, strategically strengthening Chinese supply chains within the country.
India’s regulatory framework for the burgeoning space economy is tightening, with the department of telecommunications (DoT) poised to mandate a higher revenue share for satellite communication (satcom) services, signalling a push to maximise revenue from the expanding sector. The DoT is set to propose raising the usage fee for satcom spectrum to 5% of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) which is higher than the 4% suggested by the telecom regulatory authority of India (TRAI). This policy shift, which would represent a notable cost increase for firms like Starlink and Amazon Kuiper, is justified by officials who argue that the revenue potential from satcom services warrants a higher rate, particularly from non-geostationary orbit (non-GSO) firms targeting retail consumers. The decision comes as India's space economy is projected to reach US$44bn by 2033, with annual satcom revenues currently estimated at US$1bn.
The trends of the major indices in the course of the week's trading are given in the table below:
News
Caplin Steriles received US FDA (US food and drug administration) approval for Nicardipine Hydrochloride Injection, targeting a US$68mn market. It also acquired four approved ANDA (abbreviated new drug application) worth US$121mn, expanding its US injectable portfolio. It now holds 42 approvals from 52 filed ANDAs.
Intellect Design Arena announced that NCBA Bank has become East Africa’s first to deploy Intellect’s cloud-based Enterprise MACH Architecture with artificial intelligence (AI) digital transaction banking platform. The upgraded Connect Plus system offers faster transactions, advanced cash management and seamless financial integrations for corporate clients.
Gujarat Themis Biosyn doubled its fermentation capacity to 990KL (kilolitre) at its Vapi facility, marking a key scale-up milestone. It confirmed that the first batch of commercial production of Rifamycin-S and Rifamycin-O commenced in October 2025.
Time Technoplast’s subsidiary, PBBPL, received ICAT (International Centre for Automotive Technology) approval to manufacture e-rickshaw batteries for OEMs (original equipment manufacturers). The lead-acid batteries with lead-selenium alloy are expected to generate revenue of Rs150 crore over three years, amid a Rs26,400 crore market growing at 25% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR).
MIC Electronics received RDSO (Research Designs and Standards Organization) approval for its microprocessor controller for roof-mounted AC units in LHB (Linke Hofmann Busch) and double-decker coaches.
PTC Industries signed an MoU (memorandum of understanding) with Bharat Dynamics (BDL) to form a joint venture company (JVC) for propulsion systems, guided bombs and aero-engines for missiles, UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and loitering munitions.
Orders
ACME Solar signed a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Tata Power-D for its 50MW (megawatt) firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) project at Rs4.43/unit. The hybrid solar-BESS (battery energy storage system) setup commits to 40% annual capacity utilisation factor (CUF) and 90% monthly peak-hour availability, ensuring firm green power delivery.
Ircon International bagged a Rs360.28-crore contract from Petronet LNG for civil and underground (UG) works at Dahej’s propane dehydrogenation–polypropylene (PDH-PP) plant. The 18-month project includes piling and infra development for ethane-propane storage.
Airfloa Rail Technology bagged a Rs73.93-crore order from ICF (Integral Coach Factory), Chennai, for turnkey interiors in Amrit Bharat LWSCN (Linke Hofmann Busch sleeper non-ac) coaches. The project will be executed over 12–18 months, reinforcing its leadership in rail interior solutions.
PTC Industries received a landmark order from GTRE (Gas Turbine Research Establishment, under DRDO) for post-cast single crystal turbine blades. This marks India’s first such assignment, involving machining, brazing and coating at SMTC (strategic materials technology complex), Lucknow.
Kalpataru Projects International bagged Rs2,332 crore worth orders across T&D (transmission & distribution) and B&F (buildings & factories) segments. The wins span international T&D projects and domestic EPC (engineering-procurement-construction) contracts, reinforcing sectoral strength.
Refex Industries secured a major contract worth Rs300 crore for removal of overburden, excavation and transportation of coal from a large mining entity in Jharkhand.
Investment/ Acquisition / Stake Stale
Syrma SGS Technology approved acquisition of a 49% stake in KSolare Energy for Rs83.3 crore, with PEL (Premier Energies Ltd) acquiring the remaining 51%. KSolare, a Pune-based solar inverter maker, posted FY24-25 revenue of Rs342 crore and has a 500,000-unit annual capacity.
Choice International will acquire Fintoo group’s distribution business, adding Rs300 crore to AUM (assets under management). The deal includes wealth, insurance, AIFs (alternative investment funds) and PMS (portfolio management services) under Mihika entities.
Bajaj Auto Limited announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Bajaj Auto International Holdings BV (BAIH), received approval from the Austrian Takeover Commission for its planned acquisition of control in Pierer Bajaj AG (PBAG) and, thereby, indirect control in PIERER Mobility AG (PMAG) and KTM AG, Austria.
Earnings
Colgate-Palmolive (India) posted Q2FY25-26 profit after tax (PAT) of Rs327.51 crore, down 17% y-o-y, on revenue of Rs1,507.24 crore down 6% y-o-y. Total expenses stood at Rs1,092.25 crore, with Rs225.10 crore spent on advertising and promotion.
Laurus Labs posted Q2FY25-26 revenue of Rs1,653 crore, up 35% y-o-y, with EBITDA at Rs400 crore (2.2x y-o-y). EBITDA (margin surged to 24.4% from 14.6%, driven by better cost control and mix.
Hindustan Unilever posted Q2FY25-26 PAT of Rs2,690 crore, modestly up y-o-y, with revenue at Rs15,418 crore. EBITDA stood at Rs3,536 crore, with margin improving to 22.86%. Materials costs rose to Rs5,211 crore, while ad spends reached Rs1,527 crore, amid inflationary headwinds.
HDFC Bank posted Q2FY25-26 PAT of Rs18,641 crore, up 11% y-o-y, aided by a 76% drop in provisions. NII (net interest income) rose 5% y-o-y to Rs31,552 crore, while gross non-performing assets (GNPA) improved to 1.24% from Q1FY25-26 and net NPA (NNPA) improved to 0.42% from 0.47% in Q1FY25-26, reflecting stronger asset quality and recoveries.
ICICI Bank reported Q2FY25-26 PAT of Rs12,359 crore, up 5% y-o-y, with NII at Rs21,529 crore (+7% y-o-y). Loan book grew 10.3% y-o-y, net interest margin (NIM) stood at 4.30%, and GNPA/NNPA improved to 1.58%/0.39%, amid halved provisions.
Top gainers and losers of the major indices for the week are given in the table below:
