The media today is filled with news about artificial intelligence (AI). Newspapers have not just columns on AI but full pages, sometimes two full pages on the same day. These are on AI and various aspects of learning AI and applying AI in various industries. A new technology has arrived on the scene. It is going to change the past scenario, in corporate life and even in our personal lives.
It reminded me of an incident, perhaps 25 years ago, when I was travelling to Delhi for work. On the flight, I was pleasantly surprised to find my travelling companion in the next seat was the famous SS Nadkarni. He was, at that time, the managing director (MD) of IDBI. He was a well-known face – and deservedly so, because he had made a significant contribution to the financial sector in the country, first in ICICI and, later, in IDBI.
We had a long and serious discussion during this two-hour trip. At a certain point, he was looking out of the window at the large empty spaces of India which you notice only when flying. Then he turned around to me and said, “You know, Vieira, there is, fortunately, no unemployment in the country. We are very lucky!”
I thought he was either joking or making a comment on some totally false assumptions.
He saw the quizzical look on my face and said, “I’m not joking. I am serious! Everyone in this country, who is employable, is gainfully employed. Those that are unemployed are those that are not employable.”
I thought about this for a long time. There was some sense in what he was saying. Perhaps not 100%. But surely 75% or even 60%. Those who had trained themselves, or perhaps retrained themselves in much-needed specialisations, were in great demand in India. In fact, there were not enough of them. There are not enough carpenters, plumbers or welders or even craftsmen. Yet, there is a surfeit of civil engineers and perhaps a few other professions.
That is why it was interesting to read Roger Herman’s comments on how specialised retraining programmes will flourish in the 2000s. He was a well-known management consultant from USA, who has written many books, including How To Become An Employer Of Choice.
Mr Herman said that, despite the layoffs generated by world economic recession (at that time), thousands of jobs remain unfilled. Employers face difficulty finding qualified people to fill jobs in a number of fields. The healthcare industry is in serious need of nurses in all specialities; radiological technicians; pharmacists; physiotherapists; lab workers and support staff. Energy industry recruiters seek engineers, geologists, and qualified operators. This need will be accentuated, as the people running the nuclear energy plants retire and this natural attrition will create a demand that will be hard to meet.
Mr Herman adds that with security concerns increasing, there is a growing need for competent personnel in public and private sector organisations. Consider recent decisions by the US government to hire thousands of air marshals to provide protective services on aeroplanes and to federalise airport security. Drawing from law enforcement and private security resources to fill these positions will create vacancies among employers who are already seeking additional personnel to expand their ranks.
Construction business need welders, crane operators and engineers. Automotive collision repair shops have 18,000 vacancies, according to a recent survey. Dotcom downsizing has not met the needs of information technology, industry and other high-tech organisations. There is a shortage of wireless network technicians, supply-chain integrators and systems engineers. Manufacturers need machinists and other skilled workers, including those who can operate computer-controlled equipment. There is a developing opportunity for more people to operate sophisticated printing processes. Service technicians are in short supply in a number of fields, including photocopy machines and telecommunication systems.
In 2025-26 (like in 2001), where will employers find people to hire for these jobs? If they can’t find qualified workers, companies will be forced to hire people with aptitude and train them to perform the work to be done. Improved selection techniques will be used to minimise the risk of wrong choices of people to put through expensive training programmes.
People who are now unemployed, underemployed or dis-employed will seek opportunities to learn new skills to prepare for new careers, creating demand for training programmes provided by private suppliers. The field of technical training will have to expand to meet these emerging needs.
The situation in India will not be very different. It may be different in some details and to some degree. But in essence, it is very much the same. And the situation in 2025 will not be very different from the situation in 2001. Again, it may be different in some details and to some degree.
We need to change the whole emphasis on college degrees and focus on what the nation and employees need and what they will pay for. This will balance out demand and supply. It will have to be a win-win situation for both employees and employers, and finally for the nation.
You may also want to read other articles written by the author. Here is the link
(Walter Vieira is a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants of India - FIMC. He was a successful corporate executive for 14 years, capping his career as Head of marketing for a Pharma multinational, for India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka- and then pioneered marketing consulting in India in 1975. As a consultant, he has worked across four continents. He was the first Asian elected Chairman of ICMCI, the world apex body of consultants in 45 countries, in 1997. He is the author of 16 books, a business columnist, international conference speaker and has been visiting professor in Marketing in the US, Europe, and Asia for over 40 years. He was awarded Lifetime Achievement Award for Consulting in 2005, and for Marketing in 2009. He now spends much of his time in NGO work - Consumer Education and Research Centre, IDOBRO, and some others.)
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