From time to time, we hear overtures from Pakistan, echoed by sentimental idealists within India, about friendship between Pakistan and India. The narrative runs along these lines:
- We are fundamentally the same people – same culture, same language, same food. Only selfish politics keeps us apart.
- Both nations will benefit enormously from trade and especially from savings in defence expenditure.
Let us examine these ‘reasons’.
Yes, Punjabis on both sides were pretty much the same people at one time, but that is not true of the rest of India and the rest of Pakistan. A Tamilian has very little in common with a Baloch, nor would an Assamese find a ‘brother’ in a Pashtun.
However, this is not a fundamental issue. People of different cultures and lifestyles can be good friends. I have seen this happen countless times during my 20 years in the Middle East.
The critical issue is: how do the people think?
A very sombre picture emerges, if you delve deeper.
Since the time of Zia-ul-Haq (late-1970s), there has been a deep change in Pakistan society. The education system has been radically changed to focus heavily on religion and ideology. On their first day at college, students are told that what they will be taught is false, and needed only to pass the exams—the truth is in the Holy Book.
As a part of their curriculum, this is what children are taught from a very early age:
- India is our dushman (enemy).
- Indians are Hindus, kafirs (non-believers) and despicable people.
- The sole aim of India is to destroy Pakistan.
- The army is your only protection against such attacks and our valiant army has defeated India in four wars.
The great majority of Pakistan’s population, i.e., those born after 1975, have had these ‘truths’ drilled into their heads since childhood.
If, suddenly, someone says that India is a friendly country, how much credibility would he receive?
General Bajwa, who ruled Pakistan for six years as the army chief, deposed an elected PM and 'selected' another, did talk about a hundred years of peace with India, but nobody paid any attention, even though he was the most powerful man in the country.
Things are changing, you may say—people will find the truth from social media. But that doesn’t happen in Pakistan. Social media is tightly controlled. If a writer or journalist expresses a contrary opinion, (s)he is threatened or utha liya jata hai. Moreover, there is an overwhelming flood of 'correct' opinions on social media. Hence, social media content will not change the mindset in Pakistan.
The truth is:
- There is no indication that the country’s ruling elite is ready to give up power or change its way of thinking. Any attempt at revolution will be brutally curbed.
- Even if the ruling elite changes its stance vis-à-vis India, the people are unlikely to accept it.
As regards trade, the positions of the two countries are vastly different. Pakistan has hardly anything to offer India and, what little it has may not stand in competition against Indian producers. On the other hand, India can flood Pakistan with goods of every description, from Hajmola to trains. If a free hand is given, Indian industry will swamp the Pakistani markets.
Pakistan will not allow this to happen and, hence, trade will, at best, remain too tiny to matter, at least to India.
On the defence front, even if friendship develops, India’s defence expenditure will not reduce significantly because:
- India’s real enemy is China and defence preparedness against this powerful adversary cannot be allowed to slacken.
- At the same time, our military presence on the western front cannot be diluted, because we cannot afford to allow rogue elements to pour across the border and create havoc.
So, what will India get by becoming a friend of Pakistan? Nothing really.
On the other hand, any act of friendship, such as relaxing visa controls, so as to expand the much-vaunted 'people-to-people' contact, may well open the door for umpteen jehadis to enter our country.
Therefore, friendship is not feasible for Pakistan, and not worthwhile for India. Hence, it is absurd to talk of 'aman-ki-asha' and similar idealistic notions.
But, when the army chief of Pakistan, and recently the deputy PM, talk of trade, dialogue and such-like, there is an underlying message of which we must take heed.
The fact is – slowly but surely, Pakistan is dying the 'death of a thousand cuts'. There is no money, friendly countries have turned their backs, assets have been sold, and inflation is rampant. New enemies (TTP—Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, BLA—Balochistan Liberation Army, etc) are striking within Pakistan every day, and the army doesn’t know how to control it. The situation is dire.
To my mind, Pakistan is hoping against hope that India might provide a ‘bail-out’, like the US$4bn (billion) that Sri Lanka was given. If this does happen, Pakistan may be able to carry on a few years more.
How should India react?
There is a strong case for giving Pakistan a few billion dollars, provided it gets us some military advantages, plus the prime names on our 'Wanted' list – the likes of Hafiz Saeed and Dawood Ibrahim. After all, the Pakistanis sold Osama bin Laden to the Yanks, didn’t they?
Not helping Pakistan at this juncture may lead to a meltdown in the country. The ensuing chaos, with over a hundred nuclear bombs awaiting theft, is far more dangerous for India than a starving Pakistan kept alive with a little bit of money.
The bottom line – it is foolish to expect peace with Pakistan on the basis of ‘brotherhood and friendship’. On a purely commercial basis, however, we may be able to buy peace, get some things that we want, and prevent chaos on our western border.
This version of aman, albeit purchased, could be worth having.
(Deserting engineering after a year in a factory, Amitabha Banerjee did an MBA in the US and returned to India. Choosing work-to-live over live-to-work, he joined banking and worked for various banks in India and the Middle East. Post-retirement, he returned to his hometown Kolkata and is now spending his golden years travelling the world, playing bridge, befriending Netflix & Prime Video and writing in his wife’s travel blog.)
Brahui, tribal confederacy of Balochist?n, in western Pakistan. Its members are mostly nomadic goat herdsmen, distributed from the Bol?n Pass through the Br?hui Hills to Cape Muar? on the Arabian Sea. The Brahui language is a far northwestern member of the Dravidian family of languages, all of whose other members are spoken in peninsular India; it has borrowed heavily from Sindhi but remains in unexplained isolation among the surrounding Indo-Iranian dialects, to which it bears no genetic relationship. The Brahui are estimated to number about 1,560,000.
Physically the Brahui resemble their Baloch and Pashtun neighbours, for the confederacy has been highly absorptive. They are Muslim by creed and Sunnite by sect, though the Muslim rites overlie essentially Indian social customs. Women are not strictly secluded.
'tum agar humko na chaho to koi baat nahi; tum kisi aur ko chahogi to mushkil hogi....'
strategic location: one of the best gateway to West Asia , for China and Russia
"protecting nukes" : if chips actually go down , it has Turkey or in worst case Iran " to protect" the stockpile in return of some deterrence benefits to them
in any case Turkey would be an easier sell internally than India . And most importantly, you are counting China out too prematurely.It has significant investments and interests to let the country go to jihadis
The major stumbling block is the Pakistani military which has its tentacles in all parts of the economy. Hard to root out the military once they establish control but has happened as in Chile, Argentina, Tunisia, and other countries.
Whether or not the two countries establish friendly relations in the years to come, it is important to encourage and nurture ties between the peoples of both nations so that when the leaders decide to bury the hatchet, their efforts will be accepted and amplified by the people.