One should book profits in rallies above 5,400 points, especially if the Nifty hits this level around the 16th-17th or 21st of July. The index may drift for a few days before making further attempts on the upside around these dates

S&P Nifty close: 5,327

Market Trend

Short Term: Up        Medium Term: Down            Long Term: Down

After the sharply higher close last month the bulls were unable to make much headway as the Nifty oscillated within a narrow band during the week. The Nifty gained for the 5th week (Fibonacci number) in a row from the low made during the week ended 8th June 2012. In a week of dull trading the Nifty finally ended 49 points (+0.92%) in the green. The volumes were however marginally lower than last week implying that the rise is of corrective nature even though it has survived for five weeks (we had mentioned five to six weeks) now.

The sectoral indices which outperformed were CNX Realty (+5.92%), CNX Media (+3.55%), CNX Infra (+3.36%), CNX Finance (+3.25%), CNX Metal (+2.99%) and CNX PSU Bank (+2.99%) while the gross underperformers were CNX FMCG (-2.07%) and CNX IT (-1.09%).

The histogram MACD has moved marginally above the median line but the short-term oscillators are overbought. This implies that even if a correction takes place from current or slightly higher levels, the possibility of a higher bottom has increased.

Here are some key levels to watch out for this week

1.  As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 5,308 points (pivot) the bulls need not worry. They should use this as a stop loss on longs from a very short-term perspective.
    
2.  Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,282 and 5,237 points.
    
3.  Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,352 and 5,378 points.

Some Observations
1.    The Nifty has completed the targets of 5,098 (38.2%) and 5,200 (50%) while it has come very close to 5,301 (61.8%) points retracement of the decline from 5,629-4,770 points.

2.    Surprisingly it crossed the 5,260 points with consummate ease which creates the possibility that the ensuing decline might make a higher bottom above the recent low of 4,770 points.

3.    We have completed 19 weeks from the recent high of 5,629 points. 21 weeks is a Fibonacci number hence one has to closely monitor the market from around the 21st of this month.

Strategy
We can see from the weekly chart above that the Nifty is just below the resistance line (black) which is pegged marginally above the 5,400 points mark. The volumes were not encouraging last week and we saw waning upside momentum even though the Nifty rose for the fifth week in succession. We have seen that the tops in the Nifty on an average have been roughly 17-19 weeks apart. We completed 19 weeks this week. If one considers Fibonacci retracements in time of the recent decline of 15 weeks we have already completed 38.2% and the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are pegged in the week beginning 16th July and the end of this month.

A small dip is likely but if it does not break 5,263 points (in close) it will be a sign of strength and the Nifty will try to target the 5,415-5,450 points range around the above-mentioned time cycle dates. However a breach of 5,263 points could see the Nifty slide a bit further and test the 5,180-5,200 points' area. However, a breach of this level could see further bull liquidation taking the Nifty down to 5,118 or, in a pessimistic scenario, 5,052 points in the weeks ahead. One should book profits in rallies above 5,400 points, especially if the Nifty hits this level around the 16th-17th or 21st of this month. There is a strong possibility that we might see the Nifty drift for a few days before making further attempts on the upside around the above mentioned dates.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com)