Volumes for two-wheelers would be up about 5%, car volumes could have declined by about 1%, and commercial vehicles would have been down by around 40% in January 2013, estimates

Demand for commercial vehicles is very weak, while passenger vehicles are just about holding up, observes Nomura Equity Research in its Quick Note on the automobile industry based on sales volume data for January 2013. The brokerage estimates that overall industry volumes for two-wheelers would be up about 5%, car volumes could have declined by about 1%, and commercial vehicles would have been down by around 40% in January 2013.

While HMCL’s (Hero MotoCorp) volumes were also slightly better than estimates, Nomura points out that there is a need to check if there has been any increase in inventory. Tata Motors reported volumes which were significantly below Nomura’s estimates in all categories, and there may be a need to reduce estimates further. However, JLR retails in the US were up 25% year-on-year, which in Nomura’s view are strong numbers.

JLR was helped by strong uptick in new Range Rover and Evoque sales. The weighted average promotional spend also decreased by 14% MoM (month-on-month) as the new Range Rover got retailed.